In CIA analyst Richard Heuer’s classic work, “The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis,” he identified two primary issues that will undermine intelligence analysts’ assessments if not accounted for and addressed: the need to account for uncertainty and the potential suppression of competing analytical frameworks. To cope with these needs, Heuer developed a methodology, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH), to help analysts guide the collection of evidence, maintain an awareness of uncertainty, and then help one select the most likely hypothesis. A white paper examines Heuer’s methodology and extends it through a logical model by which the authors have developed a supporting software capability.

You can download the white paper here.

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